Ratchaburi 1–1 Lamphun Warrior: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lamphun Warrior

T. Suengchitthawon 45+6'

T. Khotrsupho 24'

2/1/2025

League #296 · Round 20Ratchaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ratchaburi65%

×Draw18%

Lamphun Warrior17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchLamphun Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.19

Ratchaburi

2.46

Lamphun Warrior

1.19

Ratchaburi creates 107% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Ratchaburi

2.33

Lamphun Warrior

1.20

allows per match

Ratchaburi

1.17

Lamphun Warrior

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Lamphun Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

83%

Ratchaburi or Lamphun Warrior

82%

Draw or Lamphun Warrior

35%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

43%

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

91%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

70%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

44%

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

70%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

33%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

79%

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 2.33 + Lamphun Warrior defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.46

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.20 + Ratchaburi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

65%

level

18%

Lamphun Warrior scores more

17%

Ratchaburi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Tana

Ratchaburi · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

Anan Yodsangwal

24'

T. Khotrsupho↳ T. Chuchin

45+6'

T. Suengchitthawon↳ J. Kaewprom

46'

C. Dépres← N. Rakotoharimalala

46'

N. Muangngam← K. Nareechan

46'

48'

58'

58'

67'

S. Chakkuprasart← K. Srisuwan

74'

W. Clowuttiwat← Negueba

75'

A. Sorada← T. Tanaka

75'

Kim Ji-Min← K. Chiamudom

80'

Teerawut Churok

83'

P. Intanee← A. Yodsangwal

85'

S. Leeaoh← J. Kaewprom

90+9'

Apisit SoradaPenalty cancelled

90+5'

Júnior Batista← T. Khotrsupho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RatchaburiLamphun

Overview

78%Possession22%

15Total Shots4

9Corners1

10Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots4

7On Target1

4Off Target1

4Blocked2

9Inside Box3

6Outside Box1

Passing

78%Possession22%

578Total Passes169

518Accurate Passes103

90%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls18

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1