Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ratchaburi vs Krabi FC — FA Cup 2018

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
FT
5 – 0
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
7/25/2018FA CupFA Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ratchaburi75%
×Draw15%
Krabi FC10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
2.79
Krabi FC
0.94

Ratchaburi creates 197% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
3.57
Krabi FC
1.17

allows per match

Ratchaburi
0.71
Krabi FC
2.00

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
90%
Ratchaburi or Krabi FC
85%
Draw or Krabi FC
25%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
54%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
94%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
76%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
52%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
61%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
24%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
88%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 3.57 + Krabi FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Krabi FC attack 1.17 + Ratchaburi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
75%
level
15%
Krabi FC scores more
10%

Ratchaburi at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ratchaburi vs Krabi FC

Ratchaburi beat Krabi FC 5-0 in FA Cup on July 25, 2018.