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Ratchaburi vs Johor Darul Takzim FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Johor Darul Takzim FC
6/25/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group G - 2Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ratchaburi27%
×Draw27%
Johor Darul Takzim FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
0.98
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.38

Johor Darul Takzim FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
0.00
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.08

allows per match

Ratchaburi
1.67
Johor Darul Takzim FC
1.96

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
54%
Ratchaburi or Johor Darul Takzim FC
73%
Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC
73%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
10%
Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
62%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
26%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
8%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals
75%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals
40%
Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
37%
Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 0.00 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Ratchaburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
27%
level
27%
Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more
46%

Johor Darul Takzim FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Johor Darul Takzim FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ratchaburi vs Johor Darul Takzim FC

Johor Darul Takzim FC beat Ratchaburi 1-0 in AFC Champions League on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium in Bangkok.