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Ratchaburi vs Chainat — FA Cup 2018

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
FT
2 – 0
Chainat
Chainat
6/19/2019FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ratchaburi84%
×Draw11%
Chainat6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
3.16
Chainat
0.73

Ratchaburi creates 333% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
3.57
Chainat
0.75

allows per match

Ratchaburi
0.71
Chainat
2.75

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
94%
Ratchaburi or Chainat
89%
Draw or Chainat
16%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
65%
Chainat wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
96%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
82%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
59%
Chainat 1+ goals
52%
Chainat 2+ goals
17%
Chainat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
94%
Chainat (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Chainat away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 3.57 + Chainat defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.16

Chainat attack 0.75 + Ratchaburi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
84%
level
11%
Chainat scores more
6%

Ratchaburi at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ratchaburi vs Chainat

Ratchaburi beat Chainat 2-0 in FA Cup on June 19, 2019.