Ratchaburi 0–0 BG Pathum United: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BG Pathum United

11/22/2025

League #296 · Round 12Dragon Solar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ratchaburi47%

×Draw27%

BG Pathum United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Ratchaburi

1.44

BG Pathum United

1.00

Ratchaburi creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 24 away

1.66

creates per match

0.96

1.05

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Ratchaburi

1.66

BG Pathum United

0.96

allows per match

Ratchaburi

1.05

BG Pathum United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

74%

Ratchaburi or BG Pathum United

73%

Draw or BG Pathum United

53%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

23%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

76%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

42%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

18%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

63%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

26%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

64%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 82 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 1.66 + BG Pathum United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

BG Pathum United attack 0.96 + Ratchaburi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

47%

level

27%

BG Pathum United scores more

26%

Ratchaburi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

G. Mutombo

Ratchaburi · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

Jonathan Khemdee

32'

S. Yooyen← Matheus Fornazari

45+4'

Ekanit Panya

56'

Nika Sandokhadze

63'

C. Songkrasin← K. Kaman

63'

J. Emaviwe← J. Wonggorn

65'

Sanchai Nonthasila

70'

T. Limwannasthian← K. Srisuwan

70'

N. Rakotoharimalala← Tana

78'

C. Poomkeaw← Negueba

84'

C. Tongkiri← G. Notsuda

84'

T. Puethong← E. Panya

87'

Thossawat Limwannasthian

89'

T. Yoryoei← J. Kaewprom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RatchaburiBG

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots9

3Corners7

8Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target2

7Off Target5

1Blocked2

3Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

421Total Passes391

360Accurate Passes327

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1