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Raslavice vs Rudňany — 3. liga - East 2020

Raslavice
Raslavice
FT
2 – 1
Rudňany
Rudňany
8/1/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 1Futbalový štadión FŠ OFK SIM Raslavice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Raslavice69%
×Draw16%
Rudňany15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raslavice
2.88
Rudňany
1.33

Raslavice creates 117% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Raslavice
1.75
Rudňany
1.13

allows per match

Raslavice
1.54
Rudňany
4.00

finishing

Raslavice+0.00on par
Rudňany+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raslavice ↓

Rudňany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Raslavice or draw
85%
Raslavice or Rudňany
84%
Draw or Rudňany
31%

Winning margin

Raslavice wins by 2+
48%
Rudňany wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raslavice 1+ goals
94%
Raslavice 2+ goals
78%
Raslavice 3+ goals
54%
Rudňany 1+ goals
74%
Rudňany 2+ goals
38%
Rudňany 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Raslavice (draw refunded)
82%
Rudňany (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raslavice at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Rudňany away — creates 1.13, concedes 4.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raslavice attack 1.75 + Rudňany defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Rudňany attack 1.13 + Raslavice defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Raslavice scores more
69%
level
16%
Rudňany scores more
15%

Raslavice at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Raslavice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raslavice vs Rudňany

Raslavice beat Rudňany 2-1 in 3. liga - East on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FŠ OFK SIM Raslavice in Raslavice.