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Raslavice vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Raslavice
Raslavice
FT
2 – 5
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
8/29/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 6Futbalový štadión FŠ OFK SIM Raslavice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Raslavice52%
×Draw20%
Mladosť Kalša28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raslavice
2.30
Mladosť Kalša
1.68

Raslavice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

creates per match

Raslavice
1.75
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Raslavice
1.54
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Raslavice+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raslavice ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Raslavice or draw
72%
Raslavice or Mladosť Kalša
80%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
48%

Winning margin

Raslavice wins by 2+
31%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raslavice 1+ goals
90%
Raslavice 2+ goals
67%
Raslavice 3+ goals
40%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
81%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
50%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Raslavice (draw refunded)
65%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raslavice at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raslavice attack 1.75 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.30

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Raslavice defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Raslavice scores more
52%
level
20%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
28%

Raslavice at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Raslavice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raslavice vs Mladosť Kalša

Mladosť Kalša beat Raslavice 5-2 in 3. liga - East on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión FŠ OFK SIM Raslavice in Raslavice.