Råslätts 0–4 Dalstorps: Result & Stats

Råslätts

FT

0 – 4

Dalstorps

8/6/2019

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 16Råslätts IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Råslätts23%

×Draw23%

Dalstorps54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RåslättsExpected goals in this matchDalstorps

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.77

Råslätts

1.07

Dalstorps

1.77

Dalstorps creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.15

creates per match

1.53

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Råslätts

1.15

Dalstorps

1.53

allows per match

Råslätts

2.00

Dalstorps

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Råslätts+0.00on par

Dalstorps+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Råslätts ↓

Dalstorps →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Råslätts or draw

46%

Råslätts or Dalstorps

77%

Draw or Dalstorps

77%

Winning margin

Råslätts wins by 2+

8%

Dalstorps wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Råslätts 1+ goals

66%

Råslätts 2+ goals

29%

Råslätts 3+ goals

9%

Dalstorps 1+ goals

83%

Dalstorps 2+ goals

53%

Dalstorps 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Råslätts (draw refunded)

30%

Dalstorps (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Råslätts at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Dalstorps away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Råslätts attack 1.15 + Dalstorps defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Dalstorps attack 1.53 + Råslätts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Råslätts scores more

23%

level

23%

Dalstorps scores more

54%

Dalstorps at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dalstorps will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff