Råslätts 1–0 Almeboda Linneryd: Result & Stats

Råslätts

FT

1 – 0

Almeboda Linneryd

7/4/2019

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 15Råslätts IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Råslätts32%

×Draw23%

Almeboda Linneryd45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RåslättsExpected goals in this matchAlmeboda Linneryd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.81

Råslätts

1.50

Almeboda Linneryd

1.81

Almeboda Linneryd creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.15

creates per match

1.63

2.00

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Råslätts

1.15

Almeboda Linneryd

1.63

allows per match

Råslätts

2.00

Almeboda Linneryd

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Råslätts+0.00on par

Almeboda Linneryd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Råslätts ↓

Almeboda Linneryd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Råslätts or draw

55%

Råslätts or Almeboda Linneryd

77%

Draw or Almeboda Linneryd

68%

Winning margin

Råslätts wins by 2+

15%

Almeboda Linneryd wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Råslätts 1+ goals

78%

Råslätts 2+ goals

44%

Råslätts 3+ goals

19%

Almeboda Linneryd 1+ goals

84%

Almeboda Linneryd 2+ goals

54%

Almeboda Linneryd 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Råslätts (draw refunded)

42%

Almeboda Linneryd (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Råslätts at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Almeboda Linneryd away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Råslätts attack 1.15 + Almeboda Linneryd defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.50

Almeboda Linneryd attack 1.63 + Råslätts defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Råslätts scores more

32%

level

23%

Almeboda Linneryd scores more

45%

Almeboda Linneryd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Almeboda Linneryd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff