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Rasi Salai United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Rasi Salai United
Rasi Salai United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
2/4/2026Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Sisaket Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rasi Salai United58%
×Draw22%
Nakhon Si Thammarat20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rasi Salai United
1.95
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.04

Rasi Salai United creates 88% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Rasi Salai United
2.18
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Rasi Salai United
1.12
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Rasi Salai United+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rasi Salai United ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rasi Salai United or draw
80%
Rasi Salai United or Nakhon Si Thammarat
78%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
42%

Winning margin

Rasi Salai United wins by 2+
35%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rasi Salai United 1+ goals
86%
Rasi Salai United 2+ goals
58%
Rasi Salai United 3+ goals
31%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
65%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
28%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rasi Salai United (draw refunded)
75%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rasi Salai United at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rasi Salai United attack 2.18 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.95

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Rasi Salai United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rasi Salai United scores more
58%
level
22%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
20%

Rasi Salai United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Rasi Salai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rasi Salai United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Rasi Salai United beat Nakhon Si Thammarat 3-0 in Thai League 2 on February 4, 2026.

The match was played at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.