Rasi Salai United 3–1 Bangkok: Result & Stats

Rasi Salai United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bangkok

1/11/2026

Thai League 2 · Round 18Sisaket Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rasi Salai United55%

×Draw21%

Bangkok23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rasi Salai UnitedExpected goals in this matchBangkok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.27

Rasi Salai United

2.06

Bangkok

1.27

Rasi Salai United creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

2.18

creates per match

1.42

1.12

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Rasi Salai United

2.18

Bangkok

1.42

allows per match

Rasi Salai United

1.12

Bangkok

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rasi Salai United+0.00on par

Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rasi Salai United ↓

Bangkok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rasi Salai United or draw

77%

Rasi Salai United or Bangkok

79%

Draw or Bangkok

45%

Winning margin

Rasi Salai United wins by 2+

33%

Bangkok wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rasi Salai United 1+ goals

87%

Rasi Salai United 2+ goals

61%

Rasi Salai United 3+ goals

34%

Bangkok 1+ goals

72%

Bangkok 2+ goals

36%

Bangkok 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rasi Salai United (draw refunded)

70%

Bangkok (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rasi Salai United at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Bangkok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rasi Salai United attack 2.18 + Bangkok defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.06

Bangkok attack 1.42 + Rasi Salai United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rasi Salai United scores more

55%

level

21%

Bangkok scores more

23%

Rasi Salai United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rasi Salai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff