Rapperswil 2–1 Servette II: Result & Stats

Rapperswil

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Servette II

11/25/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 18Sportstadion Grünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rapperswil53%

×Draw22%

Servette II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapperswilExpected goals in this matchServette II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.25

Rapperswil

1.93

Servette II

1.25

Rapperswil creates 54% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 17 away

1.98

creates per match

1.24

1.26

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Rapperswil

1.98

Servette II

1.24

allows per match

Rapperswil

1.26

Servette II

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapperswil+0.00on par

Servette II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil ↓

Servette II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rapperswil or draw

75%

Rapperswil or Servette II

78%

Draw or Servette II

47%

Winning margin

Rapperswil wins by 2+

31%

Servette II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rapperswil 1+ goals

85%

Rapperswil 2+ goals

57%

Rapperswil 3+ goals

30%

Servette II 1+ goals

71%

Servette II 2+ goals

36%

Servette II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil (draw refunded)

68%

Servette II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 88 matches

Servette II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil attack 1.98 + Servette II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.93

Servette II attack 1.24 + Rapperswil defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rapperswil scores more

53%

level

22%

Servette II scores more

25%

Rapperswil at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rapperswil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff