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Rapperswil vs FC WIL 1900 — Challenge League 2026

Rapperswil
Rapperswil
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
A. Charveys 84'
R. Pousa 81'
Y. Schmid 13' (OG)
A. Bakayoko 3'
T. Staubli 79'
A. Rexhaj 52'
D. Jacovic 40'
B. Keita 14'
N. Rupp 5'
7/24/2026Challenge LeagueChallenge League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rapperswil44%
×Draw24%
FC WIL 190032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapperswil
1.69
FC WIL 1900
1.42

Rapperswil creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 43 away

creates per match

Rapperswil
1.69
FC WIL 1900
1.16

allows per match

Rapperswil
1.69
FC WIL 1900
1.70

finishing

Rapperswil+0.00on par
FC WIL 1900+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil ↓

FC WIL 1900 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rapperswil or draw
68%
Rapperswil or FC WIL 1900
76%
Draw or FC WIL 1900
56%

Winning margin

Rapperswil wins by 2+
23%
FC WIL 1900 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rapperswil 1+ goals
82%
Rapperswil 2+ goals
50%
Rapperswil 3+ goals
24%
FC WIL 1900 1+ goals
76%
FC WIL 1900 2+ goals
41%
FC WIL 1900 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil (draw refunded)
58%
FC WIL 1900 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

FC WIL 1900 away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil attack 1.69 + FC WIL 1900 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC WIL 1900 attack 1.16 + Rapperswil defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rapperswil scores more
44%
level
24%
FC WIL 1900 scores more
32%

Rapperswil at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rapperswil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Bakayoko
5'
N. Rupp
13'
Y. SchmidOwn goal
14'
B. Keita
40'
D. Jacovic↳ P. Weber
41'
Y. Ryter
42'
A. Rexhaj
52'
A. Rexhaj↳ D. Jacovic
55'
Y. Schmid
60'
U. Nwannah← P. Weber
60'
P. Fischer← A. Rexhaj
60'
R. Bobadilla← S. Diarrassouba
60'
W. Le Pogam← B. Morgado
68'
X. Aliu← B. Keita
68'
T. Staubli← D. Jacovic
72'
D. Muzzi← E. Rossier
72'
R. Pousa← A. Bakayoko
79'
T. Staubli↳ X. Aliu
81'
R. Pousa↳ W. Le Pogam
84'
A. Charveys↳ L. Emini
87'
I. Maslarov← A. Charveys
88'
I. Okafor← N. Rupp

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapperswil vs FC WIL 1900

FC WIL 1900 beat Rapperswil 5-4 in Challenge League on July 24, 2026.

Goals: A. Bakayoko (3'), N. Rupp (5'), Y. Schmid (13' o.g.), B. Keita (14'), D. Jacovic (40'), A. Rexhaj (52'), T. Staubli (79'), R. Pousa (81'), A. Charveys (84').