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Rapperswil vs FC Aarau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rapperswil
Rapperswil
CANC
12:00
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
7/23/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Grünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rapperswil50%
×Draw20%
FC Aarau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapperswil
2.25
FC Aarau
1.73

Rapperswil creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rapperswil
2.33
FC Aarau
1.67

allows per match

Rapperswil
1.78
FC Aarau
2.17

finishing

Rapperswil+0.00on par
FC Aarau+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil ↓

FC Aarau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Rapperswil or draw
70%
Rapperswil or FC Aarau
80%
Draw or FC Aarau
50%

Winning margin

Rapperswil wins by 2+
30%
FC Aarau wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rapperswil 1+ goals
89%
Rapperswil 2+ goals
65%
Rapperswil 3+ goals
39%
FC Aarau 1+ goals
82%
FC Aarau 2+ goals
52%
FC Aarau 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil (draw refunded)
62%
FC Aarau (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

FC Aarau away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil attack 2.33 + FC Aarau defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

FC Aarau attack 1.67 + Rapperswil defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rapperswil scores more
50%
level
20%
FC Aarau scores more
30%

Rapperswil at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rapperswil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rapperswil host FC Aarau

July 23, 2024: Rapperswil take on FC Aarau in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rapperswil host FC Aarau at Stadion Grünfeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.