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Rapperswil vs BSC Young Boys — Schweizer Cup 2019

Rapperswil
Rapperswil
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boysadvanced
11/1/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Round of 16Sportstadion Grünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rapperswil10%
×Draw14%
BSC Young Boys76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapperswil
0.94
BSC Young Boys
2.88

BSC Young Boys creates 206% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rapperswil
0.83
BSC Young Boys
3.77

allows per match

Rapperswil
2.00
BSC Young Boys
1.05

finishing

Rapperswil+0.00on par
BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Rapperswil or draw
24%
Rapperswil or BSC Young Boys
86%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
90%

Winning margin

Rapperswil wins by 2+
3%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Rapperswil 1+ goals
61%
Rapperswil 2+ goals
24%
Rapperswil 3+ goals
7%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
94%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
78%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil (draw refunded)
11%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil attack 0.83 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + Rapperswil defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Rapperswil scores more
10%
level
14%
BSC Young Boys scores more
76%

BSC Young Boys at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schweizer Cup: Rapperswil 0–2 BSC Young Boys

BSC Young Boys beat Rapperswil 2-0 in Schweizer Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportstadion Grünfeld in Jona.