Raplamaa 1–5 Läänemaa Haapsalu: Result & Stats

Raplamaa

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Läänemaa Haapsalu

7/29/2023

Cup · Round of 64Rapla Uhisgumnaasiumi staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Raplamaa48%

×Draw18%

Läänemaa Haapsalu35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RaplamaaExpected goals in this matchLäänemaa Haapsalu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.21

2.75

Raplamaa

3.21

Läänemaa Haapsalu

2.75

Raplamaa creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

5.00

creates per match

3.00

2.50

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Raplamaa

5.00

Läänemaa Haapsalu

3.00

allows per match

Raplamaa

2.50

Läänemaa Haapsalu

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raplamaa+0.00on par

Läänemaa Haapsalu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes90
No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raplamaa ↓

Läänemaa Haapsalu →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–33%

1–42%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–13%

4–25%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

69%31%

Double chance

Raplamaa or draw

65%

Raplamaa or Läänemaa Haapsalu

82%

Draw or Läänemaa Haapsalu

52%

Winning margin

Raplamaa wins by 2+

31%

Läänemaa Haapsalu wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Raplamaa 1+ goals

96%

Raplamaa 2+ goals

82%

Raplamaa 3+ goals

60%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 1+ goals

93%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 2+ goals

75%

Läänemaa Haapsalu 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Raplamaa (draw refunded)

58%

Läänemaa Haapsalu (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

87%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Raplamaa at home — creates 5.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Läänemaa Haapsalu away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Raplamaa attack 5.00 + Läänemaa Haapsalu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 3.21

Läänemaa Haapsalu attack 3.00 + Raplamaa defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Raplamaa scores more

48%

level

18%

Läänemaa Haapsalu scores more

35%

Raplamaa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raplamaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff