Rapitenca 2–1 Vilafranca: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vilafranca

Jordi Oribe 87'

Paki 75'

Alexis García 81' (pen)

3/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca43%

×Draw26%

Vilafranca31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchVilafranca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.22

Rapitenca

1.47

Vilafranca

1.22

Rapitenca creates 20% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 74 away

1.34

creates per match

1.12

1.31

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Vilafranca

1.12

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Vilafranca

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Vilafranca →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

69%

Rapitenca or Vilafranca

74%

Draw or Vilafranca

57%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

21%

Vilafranca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

77%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

43%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

18%

Vilafranca 1+ goals

70%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

34%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

58%

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Vilafranca away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Vilafranca defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Vilafranca attack 1.12 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rapitenca scores more

43%

level

26%

Vilafranca scores more

31%

Rapitenca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Chico← Daniel Ekedo

67'

Sergi Escofet← Alfons Serra

67'

Jonathan Ferreira← Illescas

75'

Paki

81'

Alexis GarcíaPenalty

85'

Biel← A. Kerobyan

86'

Oscar Micula← Eric Alarcón

87'

Jordi Oribe

88'

Alex Samper← Jordi Oribe

89'

Benítez← Miki Puerto

Rapitenca

Vilafranca

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: Josep Aliau

66'▲Chico←▼Daniel Ekedo

86'▲Oscar Micula←▼Eric Alarcón

88'▲Alex Samper←▼Jordi Oribe

Rapitenca substitutes

ChicoMiculaSamper

Manager: Joan Agüera

67'▲Sergi Escofet←▼Alfons Serra

67'▲Jonathan Ferreira←▼Illescas

85'▲Biel←▼A. Kerobyan

89'▲Benítez←▼Miki Puerto

Vilafranca substitutes

EscofetFerreiraBielBenítez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 2–1 Vilafranca

Rapitenca beat Vilafranca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 19, 2023.

Goals: Paki (75'), Alexis García (81' pen), Jordi Oribe (87').

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.

Rapitenca vs Vilafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 2–1 Vilafranca