Rapitenca 2–2 Sant Andreu: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sant Andreu

Pachu 90+3'

Jordi Oribe 13' (pen)

Alberto Garcia 60'

Genís Blasco 48'

1/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca34%

×Draw26%

Sant Andreu40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchSant Andreu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.39

Rapitenca

1.25

Sant Andreu

1.39

Sant Andreu creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 57 away

1.34

creates per match

1.47

1.31

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Sant Andreu

1.47

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Sant Andreu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Sant Andreu →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

60%

Rapitenca or Sant Andreu

74%

Draw or Sant Andreu

66%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

14%

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

71%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

36%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

13%

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

75%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

40%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

46%

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rapitenca scores more

34%

level

26%

Sant Andreu scores more

40%

Sant Andreu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Jordi OribePenalty

48'

Genís Blasco

57'

Joan Maynau← Pochito

57'

Alberto Garcia← Iker Garcia

60'

Alberto Garcia

68'

Cesc Martínez← Alex Samper

75'

Serreta← G. Fassani

83'

Edgar Samper← O. Ouhdadi

87'

Sergi Vives← J. Carreón

90+3'

Pachu

Rapitenca

Sant

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Josep Aliau

68'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Alex Samper

83'▲Edgar Samper←▼O. Ouhdadi

Rapitenca substitutes

MartínezSamper

Manager: Molist

57'▲Joan Maynau←▼Pochito

57'▲Alberto Garcia←▼Iker Garcia

75'▲Serreta←▼G. Fassani

87'▲Sergi Vives←▼J. Carreón

Sant Andreu substitutes

MaynauGarciaSerretaVives

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 2–2 Sant Andreu

Rapitenca and Sant Andreu drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 29, 2023.

Goals: Jordi Oribe (13' pen), Genís Blasco (48'), Alberto Garcia (60'), Pachu (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.

Rapitenca vs Sant Andreu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 2–2 Sant Andreu