Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rapitenca vs Mollerussa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Rapitenca
Rapitenca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mollerussa
Mollerussa
4/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca43%
×Draw26%
Mollerussa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapitenca
1.45
Mollerussa
1.18

Rapitenca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rapitenca
1.34
Mollerussa
1.04

allows per match

Rapitenca
1.31
Mollerussa
1.55

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par
Mollerussa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Mollerussa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw
69%
Rapitenca or Mollerussa
74%
Draw or Mollerussa
57%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+
21%
Mollerussa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals
77%
Rapitenca 2+ goals
42%
Rapitenca 3+ goals
18%
Mollerussa 1+ goals
69%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
33%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)
58%
Mollerussa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Mollerussa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Mollerussa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mollerussa attack 1.04 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rapitenca scores more
43%
level
26%
Mollerussa scores more
31%

Rapitenca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapitenca vs Mollerussa

Mollerussa beat Rapitenca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.