Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rapitenca vs L'Escala — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Rapitenca
Rapitenca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
L'Escala
L'Escala
5/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca46%
×Draw26%
L'Escala29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapitenca
1.52
L'Escala
1.14

Rapitenca creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rapitenca
1.34
L'Escala
0.96

allows per match

Rapitenca
1.31
L'Escala
1.69

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par
L'Escala+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

L'Escala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw
71%
Rapitenca or L'Escala
74%
Draw or L'Escala
54%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+
23%
L'Escala wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals
78%
Rapitenca 2+ goals
45%
Rapitenca 3+ goals
20%
L'Escala 1+ goals
68%
L'Escala 2+ goals
32%
L'Escala 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)
62%
L'Escala (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

L'Escala away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + L'Escala defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

L'Escala attack 0.96 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rapitenca scores more
46%
level
26%
L'Escala scores more
29%

Rapitenca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapitenca vs L'Escala

L'Escala beat Rapitenca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.