Rapitenca 1–2 Europa Fc: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Europa Fc

3/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca31%

×Draw26%

Europa Fc43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchEuropa Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.43

Rapitenca

1.18

Europa Fc

1.43

Europa Fc creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 42 away

1.34

creates per match

1.55

1.31

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Europa Fc

1.55

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Europa Fc

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Europa Fc →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

57%

Rapitenca or Europa Fc

74%

Draw or Europa Fc

69%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

13%

Europa Fc wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

69%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

33%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

12%

Europa Fc 1+ goals

76%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

42%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

42%

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rapitenca scores more

31%

level

26%

Europa Fc scores more

43%

Europa Fc at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Europa Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff