Rapitenca 1–2 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Castelldefels

Pachu 27'

Javier Eslava 45', 1'

12/18/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca39%

×Draw27%

Castelldefels34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.19

Rapitenca

1.29

Castelldefels

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 74 away

1.34

creates per match

1.07

1.31

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Castelldefels →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

66%

Rapitenca or Castelldefels

73%

Draw or Castelldefels

61%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

17%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

72%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

37%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

14%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

70%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

33%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

53%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rapitenca scores more

39%

level

27%

Castelldefels scores more

34%

Rapitenca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Javier Eslava

27'

Pachu

45'

Javier Eslava

61'

A. Ojeda← Peke

70'

Fran Orellana← Isaac Padilla

70'

Kevin Díaz← Alberto Salamanca

72'

Jordi Oribe← Stefi Bona

76'

Eric Alarcón← Cesc Martínez

78'

Uri Escabrós← Gerard Pedrol

89'

Dani Sánchez← Javier Eslava

Rapitenca

Castelldefels

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Josep Aliau

61'▲A. Ojeda←▼Peke

72'▲Jordi Oribe←▼Stefi Bona

76'▲Eric Alarcón←▼Cesc Martínez

Rapitenca substitutes

OjedaOribeAlarcón

Manager: Miki Carrillo

70'▲Fran Orellana←▼Isaac Padilla

70'▲Kevin Díaz←▼Alberto Salamanca

78'▲Uri Escabrós←▼Gerard Pedrol

89'▲Dani Sánchez←▼Javier Eslava

Castelldefels substitutes

OrellanaDíazEscabrósSánchez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 1–2 Castelldefels

Castelldefels beat Rapitenca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 18, 2022.

Goals: Javier Eslava (1', 45'), Pachu (27').

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.

Rapitenca vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 1–2 Castelldefels