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Rápido Bouzas vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Celta de Vigo III
Celta de Vigo III
11/11/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Campo Federativo de Coia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Rápido Bouzas38%
×Draw29%
Celta de Vigo III32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rápido Bouzas
1.16
Celta de Vigo III
1.04

Rápido Bouzas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 66 away

creates per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.33
Celta de Vigo III
1.00

allows per match

Rápido Bouzas
1.07
Celta de Vigo III
0.98

finishing

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rápido Bouzas ↓

Celta de Vigo III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rápido Bouzas or draw
68%
Rápido Bouzas or Celta de Vigo III
71%
Draw or Celta de Vigo III
62%

Winning margin

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
16%
Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
69%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
32%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
11%
Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals
65%
Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals
28%
Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
54%
Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rápido Bouzas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.33 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rápido Bouzas scores more
38%
level
29%
Celta de Vigo III scores more
32%

Rápido Bouzas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Rápido Bouzas 1–2 Celta de Vigo III

Celta de Vigo III beat Rápido Bouzas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Federativo de Coia in Vigo.