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Rapide Oued ZEM vs Widad Témara — Botola 2 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Widad Témara
Widad Témara
5/14/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 25Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM44%
×Draw30%
Widad Témara26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.16
Widad Témara
0.82

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 41% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 75 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.07
Widad Témara
0.83

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
0.82
Widad Témara
1.24

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
Widad Témara+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Widad Témara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
74%
Rapide Oued ZEM or Widad Témara
70%
Draw or Widad Témara
56%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
19%
Widad Témara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
69%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
32%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
11%
Widad Témara 1+ goals
56%
Widad Témara 2+ goals
20%
Widad Témara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
63%
Widad Témara (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.82 · 44 matches

Widad Témara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.07 + Widad Témara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Widad Témara attack 0.83 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
44%
level
30%
Widad Témara scores more
26%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Rapide Oued ZEM 2–1 Widad Témara

Rapide Oued ZEM beat Widad Témara 2-1 in Botola 2 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.