Rapide Oued ZEM 0–0 Renaissance Berkane

Rapide Oued ZEM

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Renaissance Berkane

2/23/2020

Botola Pro · Round 17Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM33%

×Draw31%

Renaissance Berkane36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapide Oued ZEMExpected goals in this matchRenaissance Berkane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.01

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.96

Renaissance Berkane

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

1.03

creates per match

1.02

1.00

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.03

Renaissance Berkane

1.02

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.00

Renaissance Berkane

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Renaissance Berkane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw

64%

Rapide Oued ZEM or Renaissance Berkane

69%

Draw or Renaissance Berkane

67%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

12%

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

62%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

25%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

7%

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

64%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

27%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

48%

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.02 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

33%

level

31%

Renaissance Berkane scores more

36%

Renaissance Berkane at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff