Rapide Oued ZEM 1–1 Racing de Casablanca

Rapide Oued ZEM

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing de Casablanca

12/3/2023

Botola 2 · Round 13Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM42%

×Draw30%

Racing de Casablanca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapide Oued ZEMExpected goals in this matchRacing de Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.92

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.17

Racing de Casablanca

0.92

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 27% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 120 away

1.07

creates per match

1.01

0.82

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.07

Racing de Casablanca

1.01

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.82

Racing de Casablanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Racing de Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw

71%

Rapide Oued ZEM or Racing de Casablanca

70%

Draw or Racing de Casablanca

58%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

18%

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

69%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

33%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

11%

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals

60%

Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals

23%

Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

59%

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.82 · 44 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.07 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

42%

level

30%

Racing de Casablanca scores more

29%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff