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Rapide Oued ZEM vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
4/25/2021Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM34%
×Draw30%
FUS Rabat35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.02
FUS Rabat
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.03
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.00
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
65%
Rapide Oued ZEM or FUS Rabat
70%
Draw or FUS Rabat
66%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
13%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
64%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
27%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
8%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
28%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
49%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
34%
level
30%
FUS Rabat scores more
35%

FUS Rabat at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Rapide Oued ZEM 2–1 FUS Rabat

Rapide Oued ZEM beat FUS Rabat 2-1 in Botola Pro on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.