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Rapide Oued ZEM vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
7/3/2022Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 30Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM43%
×Draw28%
Difaa EL Jadida29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.27
Difaa EL Jadida
1.00

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 105 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.03
Difaa EL Jadida
1.00

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.00
Difaa EL Jadida
1.51

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
71%
Rapide Oued ZEM or Difaa EL Jadida
72%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
57%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
19%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
72%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
36%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
14%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
63%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
26%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
59%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
43%
level
28%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
29%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapide Oued ZEM vs Difaa EL Jadida

Difaa EL Jadida beat Rapide Oued ZEM 1-0 in Botola Pro on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.