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Rapide Oued ZEM vs CR Khemis Zemamra — Botola Pro 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra
5/9/2021Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 15Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM41%
×Draw29%
CR Khemis Zemamra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.21
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.99

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.03
CR Khemis Zemamra
0.99

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.00
CR Khemis Zemamra
1.40

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
CR Khemis Zemamra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

CR Khemis Zemamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
70%
Rapide Oued ZEM or CR Khemis Zemamra
71%
Draw or CR Khemis Zemamra
59%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
18%
CR Khemis Zemamra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
70%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
34%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
12%
CR Khemis Zemamra 1+ goals
63%
CR Khemis Zemamra 2+ goals
26%
CR Khemis Zemamra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
58%
CR Khemis Zemamra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.00 · 60 matches

CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.03 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

CR Khemis Zemamra attack 0.99 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
41%
level
29%
CR Khemis Zemamra scores more
30%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Rapide Oued ZEM 3–2 CR Khemis Zemamra

Rapide Oued ZEM beat CR Khemis Zemamra 3-2 in Botola Pro on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.