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Rapid Wien II vs Zorya Luhansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rapid Wien II
Rapid Wien II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
1/29/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rapid Wien II26%
×Draw18%
Zorya Luhansk56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid Wien II
1.91
Zorya Luhansk
2.83

Zorya Luhansk creates 48% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rapid Wien II
2.21
Zorya Luhansk
3.80

allows per match

Rapid Wien II
1.86
Zorya Luhansk
1.60

finishing

Rapid Wien II+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Wien II ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Rapid Wien II or draw
44%
Rapid Wien II or Zorya Luhansk
82%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
74%

Winning margin

Rapid Wien II wins by 2+
13%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Rapid Wien II 1+ goals
85%
Rapid Wien II 2+ goals
57%
Rapid Wien II 3+ goals
30%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
94%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
77%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)
31%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Wien II at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 3.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Wien II attack 2.21 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Zorya Luhansk attack 3.80 + Rapid Wien II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rapid Wien II scores more
26%
level
18%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
56%

Zorya Luhansk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid Wien II vs Zorya Luhansk

Zorya Luhansk beat Rapid Wien II 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 29, 2026.