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Rapid Wien II vs SC Wiener Neustadt — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Rapid Wien II
Rapid Wien II
CANC
00:00
SC Wiener Neustadt
SC Wiener Neustadt
4/17/2020Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 24Trainingsgelände Allianz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rapid Wien II61%
×Draw20%
SC Wiener Neustadt19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid Wien II
2.20
SC Wiener Neustadt
1.13

Rapid Wien II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 41 away

creates per match

Rapid Wien II
1.96
SC Wiener Neustadt
1.15

allows per match

Rapid Wien II
1.10
SC Wiener Neustadt
2.44

finishing

Rapid Wien II+0.00on par
SC Wiener Neustadt+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Wien II ↓

SC Wiener Neustadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rapid Wien II or draw
81%
Rapid Wien II or SC Wiener Neustadt
80%
Draw or SC Wiener Neustadt
39%

Winning margin

Rapid Wien II wins by 2+
39%
SC Wiener Neustadt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rapid Wien II 1+ goals
89%
Rapid Wien II 2+ goals
64%
Rapid Wien II 3+ goals
37%
SC Wiener Neustadt 1+ goals
68%
SC Wiener Neustadt 2+ goals
31%
SC Wiener Neustadt 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)
77%
SC Wiener Neustadt (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Wien II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

SC Wiener Neustadt away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.44 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Wien II attack 1.96 + SC Wiener Neustadt defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.20

SC Wiener Neustadt attack 1.15 + Rapid Wien II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rapid Wien II scores more
61%
level
20%
SC Wiener Neustadt scores more
19%

Rapid Wien II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rapid Wien II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rapid Wien II host SC Wiener Neustadt

April 17, 2020: Rapid Wien II take on SC Wiener Neustadt in Regionalliga - Ost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rapid Wien II host SC Wiener Neustadt at Trainingsgelände Allianz Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.