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Rapid Wien II vs Ebreichsdorf — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Rapid Wien II
Rapid Wien II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ebreichsdorf
Ebreichsdorf
8/31/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 5Trainingsgelände Allianz Arena (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Rapid Wien II34%
×Draw25%
Ebreichsdorf41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid Wien II
1.38
Ebreichsdorf
1.55

Ebreichsdorf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 25 away

creates per match

Rapid Wien II
1.96
Ebreichsdorf
2.00

allows per match

Rapid Wien II
1.10
Ebreichsdorf
0.80

finishing

Rapid Wien II+0.00on par
Ebreichsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Wien II ↓

Ebreichsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rapid Wien II or draw
59%
Rapid Wien II or Ebreichsdorf
75%
Draw or Ebreichsdorf
66%

Winning margin

Rapid Wien II wins by 2+
15%
Ebreichsdorf wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rapid Wien II 1+ goals
75%
Rapid Wien II 2+ goals
40%
Rapid Wien II 3+ goals
16%
Ebreichsdorf 1+ goals
79%
Ebreichsdorf 2+ goals
46%
Ebreichsdorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)
45%
Ebreichsdorf (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Wien II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.10 · 71 matches

Ebreichsdorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Wien II attack 1.96 + Ebreichsdorf defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.38

Ebreichsdorf attack 2.00 + Rapid Wien II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rapid Wien II scores more
34%
level
25%
Ebreichsdorf scores more
41%

Ebreichsdorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ebreichsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid Wien II vs Ebreichsdorf

Rapid Wien II beat Ebreichsdorf 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 31, 2018.

The match was played at Trainingsgelände Allianz Arena (Wien).