Rapid Wien II 3–1 Draßburg: Result & Stats

Rapid Wien II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Draßburg

3/8/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 18Körner Trainingszentrum powered by Varta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Rapid Wien II64%

×Draw21%

Draßburg15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid Wien IIExpected goals in this matchDraßburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.86

Rapid Wien II

2.00

Draßburg

0.86

Rapid Wien II creates 133% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 57 away

2.00

creates per match

1.02

0.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Rapid Wien II

2.00

Draßburg

1.02

allows per match

Rapid Wien II

0.71

Draßburg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid Wien II+0.00on par

Draßburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Wien II ↓

Draßburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rapid Wien II or draw

85%

Rapid Wien II or Draßburg

79%

Draw or Draßburg

36%

Winning margin

Rapid Wien II wins by 2+

39%

Draßburg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rapid Wien II 1+ goals

86%

Rapid Wien II 2+ goals

59%

Rapid Wien II 3+ goals

32%

Draßburg 1+ goals

58%

Draßburg 2+ goals

21%

Draßburg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)

81%

Draßburg (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Wien II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 42 matches

Draßburg away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.00 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Wien II attack 2.00 + Draßburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Draßburg attack 1.02 + Rapid Wien II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rapid Wien II scores more

64%

level

21%

Draßburg scores more

15%

Rapid Wien II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rapid Wien II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff