Rapid 1–0 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Rapid

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SHANGHAI SIPG

1/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jebel Ali Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rapid74%

×Draw16%

SHANGHAI SIPG10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapidExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.77

Rapid

2.48

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.77

Rapid creates 222% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.30

creates per match

0.33

1.20

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Rapid

1.30

SHANGHAI SIPG

0.33

allows per match

Rapid

1.20

SHANGHAI SIPG

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Rapid or draw

90%

Rapid or SHANGHAI SIPG

84%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

26%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+

52%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals

92%

Rapid 2+ goals

70%

Rapid 3+ goals

44%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

54%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

18%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)

88%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.30 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.48

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.33 + Rapid defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Rapid scores more

74%

level

16%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

10%

Rapid at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff