Rapid vs Oţelul — Liga I 2018
Oţelul score first in only 14% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 58+ matches
Rapid44%
Oţelul29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rapid creates 31% more chances
Season form · 100 home / 58 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rapid ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches
Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rapid attack 1.63 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38
Oţelul attack 1.10 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Rapid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Rapid score first in only 18% of matches
- Oţelul are unbeaten in 5 straight
- 71% of Oţelul’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Both teams score in 73% of Rapid’s matches
- Both teams score in 71% of Oţelul’s matches
- Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
CFR 1907 Cluj
FCSB
Universitatea Craiova
FC Astra Giurgiu
Viitorul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FC Botosani
Politehnica Iasi
Dinamo Bucuresti
AFC Hermannstadt
GAZ Metan Medias
Dunarea Calarasi
FC Voluntari
ConcordiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rapid host Oţelul on Saturday, 30 January 2027 at 17:00. The match is part of the Liga I 2018/2019 season.
Rapid face Oţelul (Liga I)
Liga I returns with Rapid hosting Oţelul. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Rapid host Oţelul at Superbet Arena - Giulesti.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.