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Oţelul vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid
Rapid
2/8/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 26Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Oţelul38%
×Draw28%
Rapid34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.22
Rapid
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 99 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.18
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

Oţelul
1.05
Rapid
1.26

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
66%
Oţelul or Rapid
72%
Draw or Rapid
62%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
16%
Rapid wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
70%
Oţelul 2+ goals
34%
Oţelul 3+ goals
12%
Rapid 1+ goals
68%
Rapid 2+ goals
31%
Rapid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
53%
Rapid (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rapid attack 1.21 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oţelul scores more
38%
level
28%
Rapid scores more
34%

Oţelul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Oţelul 1–1 Rapid

Oţelul and Rapid drew 1-1 in Liga I on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.