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Rapid vs KVC Westerlo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rapid
Rapid
FT
2 – 3
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Mardan 2. Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rapid39%
×Draw24%
KVC Westerlo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.60
KVC Westerlo
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.30
KVC Westerlo
1.91

allows per match

Rapid
1.20
KVC Westerlo
1.91

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
KVC Westerlo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
63%
Rapid or KVC Westerlo
76%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
61%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
19%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
80%
Rapid 2+ goals
47%
Rapid 3+ goals
22%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
79%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
46%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
51%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.30 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

KVC Westerlo attack 1.91 + Rapid defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rapid scores more
39%
level
24%
KVC Westerlo scores more
37%

Rapid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs KVC Westerlo

KVC Westerlo beat Rapid 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Mardan 2. Stadı in Antalya.