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Rapid vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

Rapid
Rapid
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
Y. Bnou Marzouk 34'
A. Tîrcoveanu 52'
12/18/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 21Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Rapid55%
×Draw22%
FC Botosani23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.96
FC Botosani
1.21

Rapid creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.64
FC Botosani
0.97

allows per match

Rapid
1.44
FC Botosani
2.27

finishing

Rapid+0.56scores more
FC Botosani-0.30scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
77%
Rapid or FC Botosani
78%
Draw or FC Botosani
45%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
32%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
86%
Rapid 2+ goals
58%
Rapid 3+ goals
31%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
70%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
34%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
70%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.44 · 5 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.27 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.64 + FC Botosani defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.96

FC Botosani attack 0.97 + Rapid defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rapid scores more
55%
level
22%
FC Botosani scores more
23%

Rapid at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Lucian Goge
28'
Joyskim Dawa Tchakonte
34'
Y. Bnou Marzouk↳ A. Stahl
52'
A. Tîrcoveanu↳ Jajá
63'
R. Ilie← A. Bălan
63'
R. Fili← M. Roman
68'
A. Dragu← A. Țigănașu
68'
Mateus Santos← Jajá
76'
A. Despa← A. Stahl
76'
R. Stănici← Ș. Pănoiu
76'
L. Florică← P. Goge
77'
H. Kage← A. Tîrcoveanu
77'
Jucie Lupeta← E. Papa
85'
Bogdan Racovitan
86'
Claudiu Belu
87'
C. Popescu← Y. Bnou Marzouk
89'
Robert Dorian Stanici

Shots

5Rapid

Statistics

RapidFC
Overview
5Total Shots13
8Corners8
9Fouls7
Shots
5Total Shots13
3On Target9
2Off Target4
Goalkeeping
8Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls7
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Rapid vs FC Botosani

Rapid and FC Botosani drew 1-1 in Liga I on December 18, 2021.

Goals: Y. Bnou Marzouk (34'), A. Tîrcoveanu (52').

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.