Rapid 5–0 Farul Constanta: Result & Stats | Liga I

Rapid

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Farul Constanta

10/21/2024

Liga I · Round 13Superbet Arena-Giulești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Rapid47%

×Draw26%

Farul Constanta27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapidExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.06

Rapid

1.47

Farul Constanta

1.06

Rapid creates 39% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

1.63

creates per match

1.12

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Rapid

1.63

Farul Constanta

1.12

allows per match

Rapid

1.00

Farul Constanta

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rapid or draw

73%

Rapid or Farul Constanta

74%

Draw or Farul Constanta

53%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+

23%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals

77%

Rapid 2+ goals

43%

Rapid 3+ goals

18%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

65%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

29%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)

63%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.63 + Farul Constanta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Farul Constanta attack 1.12 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rapid scores more

47%

level

26%

Farul Constanta scores more

27%

Rapid at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff