Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rapid vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

Rapid
Rapid
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
8/20/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 6Superbet Arena-Giulești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rapid46%
×Draw23%
Farul Constanta32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.85
Farul Constanta
1.52

Rapid creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.70
Farul Constanta
1.61

allows per match

Rapid
1.43
Farul Constanta
2.01

finishing

Rapid+0.47scores more
Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
68%
Rapid or Farul Constanta
77%
Draw or Farul Constanta
54%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
25%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
84%
Rapid 2+ goals
55%
Rapid 3+ goals
28%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
78%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
45%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
59%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.43 · 6 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.70 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.85

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + Rapid defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rapid scores more
46%
level
23%
Farul Constanta scores more
32%

Rapid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs Farul Constanta

Rapid beat Farul Constanta 3-1 in Liga I on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Superbet Arena-Giulești in București.