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Rapid vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga I 2026

Rapid
Rapid
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
2/25/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 27Superbet Arena-Giulești

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Rapid48%
×Draw28%
Chindia Targoviste24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.37
Chindia Targoviste
0.89

Rapid creates 54% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 76 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.63
Chindia Targoviste
0.78

allows per match

Rapid
1.00
Chindia Targoviste
1.11

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
76%
Rapid or Chindia Targoviste
72%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
52%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
23%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
75%
Rapid 2+ goals
40%
Rapid 3+ goals
16%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
59%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
22%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
66%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.63 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Chindia Targoviste attack 0.78 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rapid scores more
48%
level
28%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
24%

Rapid at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs Chindia Targoviste

Rapid beat Chindia Targoviste 2-0 in Liga I on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Superbet Arena-Giulești in București.