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Rapid vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2018

Rapid
Rapid
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
4/13/2026Liga ILiga I · Championship Group - 4Superbet Arena - Giulesti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Rapid50%
×Draw26%
Arges Pitesti24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid
1.47
Arges Pitesti
0.93

Rapid creates 58% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 80 away

creates per match

Rapid
1.63
Arges Pitesti
0.86

allows per match

Rapid
1.00
Arges Pitesti
1.31

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rapid or draw
76%
Rapid or Arges Pitesti
74%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
50%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+
25%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals
77%
Rapid 2+ goals
43%
Rapid 3+ goals
18%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
61%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
24%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)
68%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 100 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.63 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Arges Pitesti attack 0.86 + Rapid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rapid scores more
50%
level
26%
Arges Pitesti scores more
24%

Rapid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid vs Arges Pitesti

Rapid and Arges Pitesti drew 0-0 in Liga I on April 13, 2026.

The match was played at Superbet Arena - Giulesti in Bucharest.