Rapid 1–2 ACS Sirineasa: Result & Stats | Liga II

Rapid

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ACS Sirineasa

9/7/2019

Liga II · Round 6Stadionul Regie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rapid49%

×Draw26%

ACS Sirineasa26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapidExpected goals in this matchACS Sirineasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Rapid

1.54

ACS Sirineasa

1.04

Rapid creates 48% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 84 away

1.52

creates per match

1.11

0.97

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Rapid

1.52

ACS Sirineasa

1.11

allows per match

Rapid

0.97

ACS Sirineasa

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid+0.00on par

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid ↓

ACS Sirineasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rapid or draw

74%

Rapid or ACS Sirineasa

74%

Draw or ACS Sirineasa

51%

Winning margin

Rapid wins by 2+

25%

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rapid 1+ goals

79%

Rapid 2+ goals

45%

Rapid 3+ goals

20%

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

65%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

28%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rapid (draw refunded)

66%

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid attack 1.52 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Rapid defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rapid scores more

49%

level

26%

ACS Sirineasa scores more

26%

Rapid at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rapid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff