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Rapid Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
Preview
16:00
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
2/20/2027BundesligaBundesliga · Round 21Allianz Stadion
Big match
45%
Red Bull Salzburg
model favours
31%24%45%

Rapid Vienna are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Rapid Vienna31%
×Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid Vienna
1.33
Red Bull Salzburg
1.65

Red Bull Salzburg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 128 away

creates per match

Rapid Vienna
1.65
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

Rapid Vienna
1.14
Red Bull Salzburg
1.01

finishing

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Vienna ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rapid Vienna or draw
55%
Rapid Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg
76%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
69%

Winning margin

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+
13%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals
74%
Rapid Vienna 2+ goals
38%
Rapid Vienna 3+ goals
15%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
81%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
49%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)
41%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Vienna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.14 · 133 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Vienna attack 1.65 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.33

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rapid Vienna scores more
31%
level
24%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
45%

Red Bull Salzburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (71% and 68% over 2.5)
  • 71% of Rapid Vienna’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Rapid Vienna raise their game against the top half — 42% wins vs the upper half, only 36% vs the lower
  • Red Bull Salzburg raise their game against the top half — 67% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower
  • 68% of Red Bull Salzburg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Red Bull Salzburg fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Rapid Vienna
Balanced
Red Bull Salzburg
Attack-heavy
53%Possession59%
78%Pass accuracy85%
11.2Shots17.4
0.99xGBiggest gap1.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Rapid ViennaRed Bull Salzburg

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
3
Red Bull Salzburg
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
1–01–01–01–22–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Vienna
WWDDW
Salzburg
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rapid Vienna face Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga returns with Rapid Vienna hosting Red Bull Salzburg. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rapid Vienna host Red Bull Salzburg at Allianz Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.