Rapid Vienna 1–2 Grazer AK: Result & Stats

Rapid Vienna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Grazer AK

E. Kara 74'

R. Harakate 84'

D. Maderner 67' (pen)

11/23/2025

Bundesliga · Round 14Allianz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rapid Vienna33%

×Draw27%

Grazer AK40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid ViennaExpected goals in this matchGrazer AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.35

Rapid Vienna

1.21

Grazer AK

1.35

Grazer AK creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.18

creates per match

1.48

1.22

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Rapid Vienna

1.18

Grazer AK

1.48

allows per match

Rapid Vienna

1.22

Grazer AK

1.25

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

Rapid Vienna+0.24scores more

Grazer AK+0.52scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Vienna ↓

Grazer AK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rapid Vienna or draw

60%

Rapid Vienna or Grazer AK

73%

Draw or Grazer AK

67%

Winning margin

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

14%

Grazer AK wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

70%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

34%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

12%

Grazer AK 1+ goals

74%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

39%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

46%

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Vienna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 12 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Vienna attack 1.18 + Grazer AK defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Grazer AK attack 1.48 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rapid Vienna scores more

33%

level

27%

Grazer AK scores more

40%

Grazer AK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Seidl

Rapid Vienna · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Lukas Grgić

24'

Donovan Pines

42'

M. Satin← Z. Jano

46'

M. Tilio← P. Dahl

46'

J. Horn← S. Raux Yao

53'

Thorsten Schriebl

62'

J. Antiste← N. Wurmbrand

67'

D. MadernerPenalty

74'

E. Kara↳ M. Seidl

76'

Beres Owusu

79'

L. Schaub← T. Gulliksen

80'

C. Lichtenberger← T. Koch

80'

D. Frieser← T. Schriebl

84'

R. Harakate↳ M. Satin

86'

R. Amane← M. Seidl

87'

T. Cipot← R. Harakate

87'

Y. Oberleitner← T. Schiestl

90+6'

Jannes Horn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RapidGrazer

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots6

1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.94

7Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots6

3On Target3

5Off Target1

2Blocked2

7Inside Box2

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

376Total Passes303

277Accurate Passes204

74%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4