Rapid Vienna 0–1 FC BW Linz: Result & Stats

Rapid Vienna

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC BW Linz

12/1/2024

Bundesliga · Round 15Allianz Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Rapid Vienna53%

×Draw24%

FC BW Linz22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid ViennaExpected goals in this matchFC BW Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.97

Rapid Vienna

1.66

FC BW Linz

0.97

Rapid Vienna creates 71% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 48 away

1.65

creates per match

0.81

1.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rapid Vienna

1.65

FC BW Linz

0.81

allows per match

Rapid Vienna

1.14

FC BW Linz

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

FC BW Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid Vienna ↓

FC BW Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rapid Vienna or draw

78%

Rapid Vienna or FC BW Linz

76%

Draw or FC BW Linz

47%

Winning margin

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

29%

FC BW Linz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

81%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

49%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

23%

FC BW Linz 1+ goals

62%

FC BW Linz 2+ goals

25%

FC BW Linz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

71%

FC BW Linz (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid Vienna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.14 · 133 matches

FC BW Linz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid Vienna attack 1.65 + FC BW Linz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

FC BW Linz attack 0.81 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rapid Vienna scores more

53%

level

24%

FC BW Linz scores more

22%

Rapid Vienna at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rapid Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff