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Rapid de Murillo vs La Calzada — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
La Calzada
La Calzada
10/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo25%
×Draw23%
La Calzada52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid de Murillo
1.17
La Calzada
1.79

La Calzada creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 108 away

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo
0.87
La Calzada
1.19

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo
2.40
La Calzada
1.47

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par
La Calzada+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

La Calzada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw
48%
Rapid de Murillo or La Calzada
77%
Draw or La Calzada
75%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
10%
La Calzada wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
69%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
33%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
11%
La Calzada 1+ goals
83%
La Calzada 2+ goals
53%
La Calzada 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
32%
La Calzada (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

La Calzada away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + La Calzada defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.17

La Calzada attack 1.19 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more
25%
level
23%
La Calzada scores more
52%

La Calzada at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "La Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rapid de Murillo 0 – 3 La Calzada

La Calzada beat Rapid de Murillo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Rozo in Murillo de Río Leza.