Rapid de Murillo 1–1 Haro Deportivo: Result & Stats

Rapid de Murillo

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Haro Deportivo

3/12/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 23Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo28%

×Draw24%

Haro Deportivo47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid de MurilloExpected goals in this matchHaro Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.67

Rapid de Murillo

1.24

Haro Deportivo

1.67

Haro Deportivo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

0.87

creates per match

0.94

2.40

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo

0.87

Haro Deportivo

0.94

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo

2.40

Haro Deportivo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

Haro Deportivo →

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw

53%

Rapid de Murillo or Haro Deportivo

76%

Draw or Haro Deportivo

72%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+

12%

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals

71%

Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals

35%

Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals

13%

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

81%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

50%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)

38%

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more

28%

level

24%

Haro Deportivo scores more

47%

Haro Deportivo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Haro Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff