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Rapid de Murillo vs Cenicero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cenicero
Cenicero
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo51%
×Draw22%
Cenicero27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapid de Murillo
1.94
Cenicero
1.36

Rapid de Murillo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo
0.87
Cenicero
0.33

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo
2.40
Cenicero
3.00

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par
Cenicero+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

Cenicero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw
73%
Rapid de Murillo or Cenicero
78%
Draw or Cenicero
49%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
29%
Cenicero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
86%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
58%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
30%
Cenicero 1+ goals
74%
Cenicero 2+ goals
39%
Cenicero 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
65%
Cenicero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Cenicero away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + Cenicero defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Cenicero attack 0.33 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more
51%
level
22%
Cenicero scores more
27%

Rapid de Murillo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rapid de Murillo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rapid de Murillo 0 – 1 Cenicero

Cenicero beat Rapid de Murillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Rozo in Murillo de Río Leza.