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Raon l'Etape vs Paris FC — Coupe de France 2018

Raon l'Etape
Raon l'Etape
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Paris FC
Paris FCadvanced
J. Ikone 87' (pen), 79', 32'
12/20/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Paul Gasser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Raon l'Etape27%
×Draw24%
Paris FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raon l'Etape
1.19
Paris FC
1.70

Paris FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Raon l'Etape
1.57
Paris FC
1.69

allows per match

Raon l'Etape
1.71
Paris FC
0.81

finishing

Raon l'Etape+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raon l'Etape ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Raon l'Etape or draw
51%
Raon l'Etape or Paris FC
76%
Draw or Paris FC
73%

Winning margin

Raon l'Etape wins by 2+
11%
Paris FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Raon l'Etape 1+ goals
70%
Raon l'Etape 2+ goals
33%
Raon l'Etape 3+ goals
12%
Paris FC 1+ goals
82%
Paris FC 2+ goals
51%
Paris FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Raon l'Etape (draw refunded)
35%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raon l'Etape at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raon l'Etape attack 1.57 + Paris FC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Paris FC attack 1.69 + Raon l'Etape defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Raon l'Etape scores more
27%
level
24%
Paris FC scores more
49%

Paris FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. IkoneParis FCParis FC · M
9.7

Match Events

27'
Mathieu Cafaro
32'
J. Ikone↳ W. Geubbels
45+1'
Marko Radisavljevic
63'
L. Petit← M. Radisavljevic
68'
L. Yattabare← E. Rateau
68'
L. Gueye← M. Cafaro
73'
Adelino Afangbom
79'
J. Ikone↳ L. Gueye
83'
K. Prouchet← V. Marchetti
84'
S. Savran← P. Fall
84'
M. Dao← J. Lopez
85'
T. Ribas← M. Cherief
87'
J. IkonePenalty
90'
A. Fatahine← T. De Smet
90'
Z. Khaldi← J. Ikone

Possession

22%Raon

Shots

4Raon

Pass accuracy

41%Raon

Statistics

RaonParis
Overview
22%Possession78%
4Total Shots23
2Corners8
11Fouls8
Shots
4Total Shots23
1On Target8
2Off Target9
1Blocked6
2Inside Box19
2Outside Box4
Passing
22%Possession78%
176Total Passes641
109Accurate Passes564
62%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Coupe de France: Raon l'Etape 0–3 Paris FC

Paris FC beat Raon l'Etape 3-0 in Coupe de France on December 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Ikone (32', 79', 87' pen).

Paris FC controlled possession (78%) and registered 23 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Paul Gasser in Raon L Etape.